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Prediction for CME (2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-08T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33243/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered near N14W20 which deflects NW as it erupts based on SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The eruption begins around 2024-09-08T00:00Z. A faint EUV wave is visible traveling N/NE of the source location despite the filament material deflecting NW as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 284. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 304. Characterized by two consecutive enhancements in magnetic field components, the first at 2024-09-11T14:18Z and the second at 2024-09-11T15:40Z with Enhancements in solar wind speed (approx. 343 km/s to approx. 390 km/s), temperature (approx. 26kK to approx. 70 kK), and density (approx. 4 p/cc to approx. 24 p/cc). These enhancements are possibly due to the arrival of CME: 2024-09-08T01:36Z, which arrived at STEREO A at 2024-09-10T21:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-11T14:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-10T22:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-09-08T05:25Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 700
Longitude (deg): W20
Latitude (deg): N25
Half-angular width (deg): 35

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Duty Forecaster

Lead Time: 67.30 hour(s)
Difference: 16.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-09-08T19:00Z

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